Un réexamen de la relation entre déficit budgétaire et déficit du compte courant : Une évidence au Togo par un modèle à seuil

Abstract

Global imbalances pose a genuine threat to the economies of developing countries. This study aims to re-examine the relationship between the budget deficit and the current account deficit in the context of significant public debt in Togo. It also seeks to estimate the public debt threshold beyond which the twin deficits hypothesis does not hold. To this end, the Granger causality test and Hansen's threshold econometric model were applied to time-series data from Togo covering the period 1970–2019.

The results indicate a positive relationship between the two deficits, with causality running from the current account to the budget deficit. In other words, the current account targeting hypothesis is validated for Togo. The public debt threshold beyond which the twin deficits hypothesis no longer holds is 45% of GDP. When public debt is at or below 45.84%, an increase in the current account deficit leads to an increase in the budget deficit, confirming the twin deficits hypothesis. However, when public debt exceeds this threshold, the hypothesis does not hold in the case of a reverse relationship.